I will say, starting with a conclusion/theory is fine, but the next step is to do everything you can to disprove it. The more you and other fail, the stronger it becomes

Valve’s big business strategy seems to be just wait for your competition to shoot themselves in the foot

“We are not increasing the price of your subscription, we are simply changing the benifits you have and adding a tier above yours that’s identical to what you used to have” was basically whe announcement they made alongside that IIRC