• 0 Posts
  • 3 Comments
Joined 1 month ago
cake
Cake day: January 20th, 2026

help-circle

  • Reasons for the invasion matter of course, but they matter for different people. The American people deserve to know why their treasury is being expended on a war half across the world instead of being used to improve life at home. Or exactly what improvements they reap in terms of security by fighting this war, if their administration is going to tell them that Iran is two weeks from getting the bomb for the last decade anyway.

    But these reasons are irrelevant for Iran. Trump could be attacking Iran because he legitimately feels threatened; or for its oil; or to distract the public, or maybe simply because he wants to build a Trump Tower&Casino in Persepolis. The point is that, whatever the insane reasons the United States have for their attack, Iran CANNOT prevent them from acting upon them. Nor can it change the minds of those in charge of writing American foreign policy; no more than the Zulus could change the reasons for why the British Empire attacked them, for example.

    What Iran CAN do is set clear consequences for attacks on its sovereignty. “You strike our Consulate. Fine.” Two days later Hzb retaliates on a diplomatic mission of the Epstein Coalition. “You kill our officials. Okay” A week later an American military contractor happens to “disappear”. And so on. This is tit-for-tat retaliation.

    Reasons for war are for the American people to debate on. And I agree with the idea that with such baseless reasons, it really does show the corruption of the leadership that started this war, as well as of those who do nothing to prevent it. But for Iran, it isn’t about determining whether the reasons of their attacker are good or bad. It is about making the likelihood of an attack go from possible to impossible, without significant casualties. And Iran has blundered massively on the latter.


  • The Iranians’ biggest mistake here were to be weak. Ever since 2020 when Trump first attacked them, they failed to achieve any meaningful retaliation, and they have successively failed to achieve any till today.

    Seeing that Iran did nothing but a face saving strike when the US took down Solemeni, the Israelis went ahead with striking their consulate in 2024. Seeing yet another weak response, they went for all out strikes on their facilities in 2025. Yet again no retort from Iran. Well, guess what? Now they’re rampaging all over the bloody country.

    The Americans’ assessment of Iran was clear. Iran would not establish any form of deterrence because it clings to the delusions of having a negotiated settlement being ratified, which the Americans themselves never had any intention of signing.

    Had the IRGC and Hizbullah replied in a tit-for-tat each time to punish American and Israeli assets in the region for their illegal and insane actions, clear deterrence would have been established and Iran’s red lines would have been backed with some credibility. The Americans would not have been so keen to act with such impunity. But again, because of the Ayatollah’s futile hope to keep the door open for future negotiations, they’ve sabotaged their own position as well as their nuclear program. And the result now is that both the IRGC and Hzb have been split apart and are being destroyed one at a time.

    Ironically, the Ayatollah’s half-hearted policy towards American aggression is what probably cost him his life and those of his immediate family today.

    Trump is essentially a shark in the water (no disrespect meant towards sharks). If it smells blood, it will pounce on its prey, no questions asked. But if its prey is willing to struggle, it will move on to another already injured target.

    The biggest mistake to make against this kind of adversary is to show weakness. But Iran could not understand that.